The Public Budget Game in Tourism

Is economics a zero-sum game? Depends on. The answer to this question is basically linked to the context in which it is applied and to a fundamental variable: what is at stake.

As Game Theory explains, a zero-sum game is one in which for there to be gains on one side, the other must necessarily lose. Chess, checkers, and even the popular tic-tac-toe are examples that illustrate this definition. In football, still in the World Cup atmosphere, it would be the famous "knockout", when only one team advances to the next phase (Brazil says so...).

Bringing it to the universe of public policies, the zero-sum game can be observed in the decision-making process for the allocation of resources. For one area to conquer a budget, another (or others) necessarily have to lose, to a lesser or greater extent. And, in this scenario, usually the player who accumulates a lot of losses is Turismo.

A few days ago, it was headlines in different vehicles that the Ministry of Tourism's budget for the year 2023 brings a cut of 74% with an allocation of only R$ 19 million for investments, which would be the amount responsible for enabling the execution of public policies. As for Embratur, there is no forecast of federal funds, as the agency has become an Autonomous Social Service.

Ironically, this amount of R$ 19 million was allocated to a program called "The Hour of Tourism", a concept created in 2019 by MTur to "mark the positive moment of the national travel industry". In theory, the brand created at the time, which uses the same name as the program, would be accompanied by several measures, such as: market opening, aiming to increase the competitiveness of the sector; structuring and qualification of the tourist offer; promotion of destinations; public-private partnership; attracting investments and stimulating new businesses; and actions that make the destination Brazil more attractive to both Brazilians and foreigners.

Compared to tourism planning in recent years, in the 2022 Budget Law, "The Tourism Hour" had an estimated value of more than R$ 179 million. In 2021, the amount committed was even higher: R$ 254 million.

In the project for 2023, the R$ 19 million planned were distributed in 06 major groups of activities and in 01 project:

Drawing a parallel, we cannot fail to remember: the same proposal that provides R$ 19 million for tourism, he reserved scandalous R$ 19.4 billion for the secret budget, considered incostitucional yesterday (12/19/2022) by the Federal Supreme Court (STF).

Every Brazilian, minimally well informed, is aware that the economic scenario in the country is worrisome. The COVID-19 pandemic is still a real fear, the effects of the insane war promoted by Russia are also felt here, among other external and internal variables that make the direction of the economy even more tortuous. Therefore, it was not expected that public investments would be large next year, especially for Tourism, which is not yet seen as an economic driver. However, what is being revealed by the transition group of the new government, shows a premeditated script of chaos.

The absence of resources for MTur means that the proposals worked on by society for tourism in the next government will hardly be executed in the near future. The document, which was open to contributions until November 18, 2022 , presents guidelines for 03 major areas: Tourism and Quality, Strengthened Governance and Image of a Tourist Destination and a Nation. Emphasis on the return of inclusion actions for traditional, Afro and LGBTQIA+ communities and initiatives that address the concern with climate change.

The federal "scissors" also hit fundamental programs in the health area, such as the Popular Pharmacy and the National Immunization Program. Auxílio Brasil, the object of great fanfare in the electoral campaign, does not even have resources secured to guarantee the established floor.

In view of this reality, some reflections need to be made. The private tourism sector needs an agent that leads the recovery, which invests in development actions. Without resources to act, MTur runs the risk of being a mere extra. Programs, already weakened by the absence of planning, such as Tourism Regionalization, may disappear for good. Tourism promotion, fundamental to rescue Brazil's image and attract visitors, with such a small budget, will have its scope restricted. And tourism infrastructure will continue to be a bottleneck for the growth of tourism in the country.

The transition group classified the situation of MTur as "terrible" and delivered a report to the vice-president-elect, Geraldo Alckimin. The document, which has not yet been made public, may bring some answers, however, there are no magic solutions. In his desperate attempt to be re-elected, (former) President Bolsonaro took a very big risk. In a zero-sum game, he chose to determine that the state would lose more. It remains to be seen who won in this story.